The RBI Monetary Policy Committee meets from October 5 to 7, with the decision due on October 7. In a Business Standard poll, 8 of 10 respondents said they anticipate a 25 basis point increase from the current 5.25% repo rate, which has been held for four straight reviews. The last hike was in February 2023. Retail inflation rose to 4.8% in August from 4.45% in July, and crude oil is above $100 a barrel. Bank of Baroda's chief economist was the lone voice for waiting, citing the festival season.
Why it matters for listed companies
The repo rate sets the base for lending and deposit pricing. A hike feeds into floating-rate home, auto and business loans, so banks and NBFCs face shifts in margins and loan demand, while real-estate developers and automakers are exposed through EMI-sensitive demand during the festive season. Icra's chief economist noted in the same report that petrol and diesel prices would need an increase of Rs 8-9 a litre at current crude levels, which links the decision to oil marketing companies as well. Nothing is decided until the October 7 announcement.
These figures are measured, not attributed. Prices and rates move for many reasons at once; they show
what happened after this story, not that the story caused it. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.
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