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Business news · Economy · 29 May 2026

IMD cuts 2026 monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average as El Nino builds; onset pushed to around June 1

IN Fast Moving Consumer Goods Automobile and Auto Components Chemicals

What happened

The India Meteorological Department lowered its June-September monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average (plus or minus 4%), from 92% in April, as El Nino conditions develop. June rainfall is seen below normal at 92% of LPA, and the monsoon core zone, home to much rain-fed farming, at under 94%. Monsoon onset, earlier predicted for May 26, is now seen around June 1. Below-normal rain in the central and western core zone could hurt output of pulses, oilseeds and sugarcane.

Why it matters for listed companies

Monsoon rain still drives farm incomes and rural spending, so a forecast at the deficient threshold is a direct risk for rural-heavy FMCG companies, tractor and two-wheeler makers, and fertiliser and agrochemical firms. Weaker pulses, oilseed and sugarcane harvests would add to food inflation and limit the RBI's room to ease, while sugar mills and edible-oil processors face supply and price swings. Hotter, drier conditions also lift power demand.

Reported by Business Standard — “IMD further lowers 2026 monsoon forecast as El Nino set to develop” ↗ on 29 May 2026.

How these sectors have moved since

NSE stocks, from the last close on or before 29 May 2026 to the close on 16 Oct 2026.

SectorStocksMedian moveUpvs all stocks
Fast Moving Consumer Goods47 -7.0%17 of 47-3.8 pts
Automobile and Auto Components52 +0.0%26 of 52+3.2 pts
Chemicals47 -4.7%21 of 47-1.5 pts
All tracked stocks799-3.2%348 of 799—
These figures are measured, not attributed. Prices and rates move for many reasons at once; they show what happened after this story, not that the story caused it. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.

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